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Synopsis
Can one unambiguously conclude that all RTAs lead to trade-investment creation? No. The answer is empiricaland depends on specifics of the agreement: how substantial is the agreement? How deep is its coverage? Arelarge chunks of the trade basket left out because of negative lists?
By Bibek Debroy & Aditya SinhaThere have been reports that GoI intends to review India’s regional trade agreements (RTAs). Signing RTAs or opting out of them isn’t a binary. This is akin to the old trade diversion-creation and investment diversion-creation argument in vogue since the days of economist Jacob Viner in the 1950s.Can one unambiguously conclude that all RTAs lead to trade-investment creation? No. The answer is empiricaland
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